DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITHIN
BROADER NRN-STREAM PATTERN OF ROCKIES RIDGE AND NERN CONUS TROUGH. 
ACCORDINGLY...NWLY TO WNWLY FLOW PREVAILS FROM NRN PLAINS TO
CAROLINAS...WITH EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS NOTED OVER ND/SERN SK AND
OVER IL/MO.  LATTER TROUGH -- LIKELY TO BE REINFORCED BY
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS LOWER
OH VALLEY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED MID-UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY JUST OFFSHORE PAC NW - WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ENEWD AND CROSS ORE/WA COASTLINE AROUND 12Z.  UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER
OK WILL PERSIST...WITH ELY TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUING TO DRIFT WWD FROM
SWRN NM ACROSS SERN AZ.

23Z SFC CHART SHOWED DECELERATING COLD FRONT FROM WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SERN GA...NWWD ACROSS MID TN...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE AMIDST
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS SERN THROUGH NWRN MO.  ANOTHER
FRONT/TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ROUGHLY NEAR STJ AND WSWWD ACROSS NRN/WRN
KS TO NEAR LAA...ALSO MODULATED ON MESOBETA SCALE BY OUTFLOWS.
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM MO-GA SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SETTLING SWD SLOWLY ACROSS KS AND WEAKENING. 
QUASISTATIONARY SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NERN KS NWD ACROSS
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER REGION.

...LOWER MO VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS WEAKENED WHILE MOVING INTO SOMEWHAT
HIGHER-CINH AIR MASS ACROSS ERN MO.  MEANWHILE SCATTERED TSTMS
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THAT ACTIVITY
ACROSS NRN MO...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED WSWWD ACROSS NRN KS INVOF
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE.  ISOLATED/BRIEF SVR POTENTIAL IN FORM OF WET
DOWNBURSTS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY SFC DEW
POINTS 70S F ACROSS MO AND NERN KS...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.

OVERNIGHT FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC IS FCST TO VEER AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY
-- WITH 30-35 KT 850 MB WLYS REASONABLY PROGGED ATOP OUTFLOW POOL
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MO...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR GEN TSTMS ACROSS
THIS REGION...HOWEVER SVR THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL ATTM
TO MAINTAIN PROBABILITIES SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.  BOUNDARY
LAYER TRANSITIONS TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE DEEPLY-MIXED STATE WITH
WWD EXTENT ACROSS NRN AND WRN KS...ALSO SUPPORTING STG-DAMAGING
GUSTS FROM MOST INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS.  PRECONVECTIVE MLCINH OVER THIS
ENTIRE REGION IS FCST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY OVER MORE MOIST AIR MASS
OF MO/IL THIS EVENING...AND FASTER AFTER SUNSET OVER WRN
KS...REDUCING THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS OVERALL IN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LOW--MIDDLE LEVEL SHEAR.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
A FEW STG-SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS ND/NRN MN
FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...WITHIN PLUME OF RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOUND ABOUT 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF SFC TROUGH.  35-45 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN.  HOWEVER...EXPECT WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
RELATED TO WEAK SFC WINDS E OF TROUGH AND NWLYS TO ITS W...AS
SAMPLED BY BIS/MPX RAOBS.  DIABATIC COOLING WILL RENDER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS MORE STABLE WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
REDUCE ALREADY MRGL AND VERY ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM SERN ID NWD ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN
MT MAY POSE RISK FOR STG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED SVR HAIL FOR
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...BASED ON MODIFIED BOI/TFX RAOBS. 
THEREAFTER...COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND EXPANSION OF
OUTFLOW AIR SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCES AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

..EDWARDS.. 07/31/2010