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Golden Weather

National Weather Service (NWS) Updates
from Golden Weather Central

SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 4 23:08:01 UTC 2012
Posted on 02/04/2012 04:07 PM
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 4 23:08:01 UTC 2012.

SPC MD 113
Posted on 02/04/2012 03:47 PM
MD 0113 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SERN LA...FAR SERN MS...FAR SWRN AL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LA...FAR SERN MS...FAR SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 042246Z - 050015Z A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR SERN LA...FAR SERN MS...AND FAR SWRN AL...WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER 01Z. A WW IS NOT NEEDED. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES MOVING EWD AROUND 20 KT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM EAST OF THE HATTIESBURG MS AREA SWD TOWARD THE EAST END OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO NEAR GRAND ISLE LA. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AMIDST A WEAKLY BUOYANT -- MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J PER KG -- AND ANOMALOUSLY MOIST TROPOSPHERE -- PW VALUES OF 180 TO 190 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER BLENDED AMSU/SSMI DATA -- SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PER AREA VWP DATA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTAINING SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OWING TO WATER LOADING PROCESSES AND WEAK/BROAD...LINE-EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER MOBILE VWP DATA...THE LACK OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE ABSENCE OF GREATER BUOYANCY...AND THE ABSENCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOL WILL GREATLY MINIMIZE ANY THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS. AFTER 01Z...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A REDUCTION IN THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS. ..COHEN.. 02/04/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30418780 30158816 29668875 29068918 29298980 30028962 30708926 31208880 31318826 31148779 30758771 30418780
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SPC Feb 4, 2012 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Posted on 02/04/2012 12:16 PM
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2012 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LA/MS/AL... A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EWD AND PUSHED ALONG BY MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE FROM GUSTY WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF ONGOING ACTIVITY FOR THE HEAT OF THE DAY. HAVE REMOVED TORNADO PROBABILITIES COMPLETELY AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK AND BULK OF ACTIVITY IS OUTFLOW DOMINATED. ...S TX... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD ACROSS DEEP S TX...WHERE A SMALL SECTOR OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY EXISTS. GIVEN THE FAST SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD GET UNDERCUT WITH STABLE AIR...REDUCING WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO...FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW KM IS MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES FOR ELEVATED STORMS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DO NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR SEVERE HAIL...THUS HAVE REMOVED HAIL PROBS AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 02/04/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2012/ ...LWR MS VLY INTO LWR TN VLY... SQUALL LINE WAS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN CHARACTER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES ALONG NRN EDGE OF A NARROWING LLVL THETA-E AXIS. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE EVOLVED FROM CNTRL LA SWD INTO THE WRN GULF BASIN AMIDST MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY. OCNL BRIEF BOWING AND ROTATING STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE LINE OVER CNTRL LA WHERE LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A MESOLOW. MID-LVL SWLY FLOW OF 25-30 KTS COUPLED WITH MARGINAL THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT LOW-END DMGG WIND PROBABILITIES...ESPECIALLY FROM SCNTRL LA TO CNTRL MS THIS AFTN. HERE...STRONGEST VEERING LOW/MID-LVL WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST ALONG THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE BERMUDA SFC RIDGE SUPPORTING RISK OF BRIEF ROTATING FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. ...DEEP S TX... CU STREETS NOTED ON LATE MORNING VSBL SATL IMAGERY WILL LIKELY ERUPT INTO TSTMS AS SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CDFNT CLEARS DEEP S TX DURING PEAK HEATING. CONVECTION COULD BE ENHANCED BY WEAK IMPULSES NOTED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NRN MEX. WHILE WIND FIELDS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK...THEY WILL EXHIBIT AMPLE VEERING FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM. THE RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH HEATING AND SUSTAINED UPLIFT ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW/CDFNT MAY YIELD A COUPLE SUSTAINED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL OR DMGG WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE.
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